Saturday, November 22, 2008

Get Up from the School of Hard Knocks

401(k) Risk ManagementThis is a true story.

I received a phone call one extraordinary Friday evening. It was October 16, 1987. An associate, a politically-connected friend, had news I should hear.

The stock market, he said, would crash on Monday, October 19th! And CRASH it did.

Now, let me ask you this...

Why did I find it so hard to believe his dire prediction? Why did I not see the crash coming myself? Friday, October 16, 1987 — the day my friend called — was the worst day in an already bad month up to that point. Then came a shock on Monday, October 19, 1987: the Greatest Stock Market Crash of all time ... just as my friend said it would!

Why did I doubt his authority? Why did his claim seem too bold?

My disbelief was all the more surprising, because I had been telling others several months earlier that I, too, thought a stock market crash was possible. I was quite aware of the risk.

Are you wondering what is the point of this story?

Simply that skepticism is a sentiment to which we are all inclined. Yet fear of the unknown can be a healthy thing when we are driven to raise certainty in our decision-making ability.

Now, sometimes we believe we are living in extraordinary times. But are we ever really? Of course, yes, in some ways it is true. But for the most part life is the same as it ever was. People don't change all that much from one generation to the next.

Those who thrive in good times and bad learn to help themselves. Theirs is power to manage risk and get in front of opportunity. Having developed both confidence to act and conviction to withstand bumps in the road, these are people who know how patience pays.

Those who avoid risk like the plague all have something in common. They take action to secure their well-being.

Is your 401(k) back in the market?

It really is so simple. Sound reason alone can help you overcome natural doubt.